With three quarters of 2019 behind us the general consensus is that the markets we serve in North Central New Jersey are holding their own, with significant but expected amount of variation from town to town. Of the 36 towns we studied, 20 sold fewer homes in the first three quarters of 2019 than they did during the same period in 2018, while 15 posted increased sales and one was flat. These numbers represent a slight decline from Q2, when we had 18 declining, 16 improving and one flat.

Most Improved Markets

Of all the towns we looked at, the three that posted increases in all four price ranges we study were Bedminster, Far Hills and Westfield. Far Hills is typically difficult to measure simply due to the low transaction volume that accompanies such a small town, but having seen about as many home sales in 2019 year-to-date as it did in the preceding two years, it is undeniable that the town is having a moment. Several other towns performed very well even if they did not see improvements in all price bands (often because they just do not have a market in all price ranges). Lebanon Borough, for example, was up 44% year-to-date for homes under $1 million, while Maplewood, Mendham Township, New Providence, and Watchung all performed very well for sales up to $2 million.

Mixed Results between $1 million and $2 million

Interestingly, homes priced between $1 million and $2 million appear to be surging in towns like Mendham Township, Bridgewater, Florham Park, Morris Township, New Providence, Tewksbury and Watchung, while others, like Peapack-Gladstone, Madison and Bernards Township are seeing notable declines in that price range. With relatively small amounts of data informing this report it is likely that some of these shifts simply reflect the natural variability of buyers’ choices, but not always. Tewksbury, which has experienced a strong increase in sales between $1 million and $2 million, has 32 months of supply in that price range. It would appear that the inevitable downward pressure on values that accompanies such an oversupply, has led to a perception of value that has motivated buyers to act. On the other hand, supply in Madison and Bernards Township has been low for some time, and while these towns are now seeing a decrease in sales, inventory remains low and prices steady.

Luxury Home Sales Slow but Steady

For home sales over $2 million things have remained relatively unchanged from our last report. Very limited data makes analysis difficult, but we continue to see an improvement in the countryside estate market, with Bernardsville doubling its sales over $2 million versus last year. Although Millburn/Short Hills has recovered previous losses in the $1 million to $2 million market, sales above $2 million are still flagging. Summit is also struggling in this price range, and anecdotal reports from other towns in our eastern market are that activity remains sluggish above $2 million. Located on the cusp of the suburbs but with a decidedly bucolic feel, Harding Township has seen declines in each of the price bands over $1 million year-to-date.

If there is any constant in our regional real estate market, it’s variability — from one town to the next and across price segments. An experienced real estate professional can help you assess the particulars relative to your unique circumstances. I hope you will not hesitate to call on one of the fine agents at Turpin Realtors for expert advice and diligent service.